A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
